Improbable-Shoat
0x504773a77a58e4f5f39653aa26226d2b1930bce9
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$32.20
Total PnL
$11.87
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
13 shares @ 11.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$13.45
$11.86
- YES
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
5 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$5.38
$2.47
- YES
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.33
$2.33
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
3 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$2.69
$0.56
- YES
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
3 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$2.69
$0.19
- YES
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
3 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$2.69
$0.27
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$1.97
$0.98
- YES
Will U win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
61 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.12
- YES
Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
59 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.11
- YES
Will COM win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
27 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.32Mar 1, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.11Mar 1, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill U win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?$0.01Mar 1, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?$0.01Mar 1, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AV (Green Alliance) win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?$0.01Mar 1, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.11Mar 1, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.32Mar 1, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill U win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?$0.00Mar 1, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?$0.00Mar 1, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AV (Green Alliance) win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?$0.01Mar 1, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.11Feb 28, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.32Feb 28, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.59Feb 28, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Los Angeles Clippers finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?$0.01Feb 28, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Dallas Mavericks finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?$0.00Feb 28, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Golden State Warriors finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference?$0.01Feb 28, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.11Feb 27, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.32Feb 27, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.56Feb 27, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill U win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?$0.01Feb 27, 14:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 26, 17:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 05:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.