Troubled-Overnighter
0x510377ce6af7ea648531c3fc6365a34633fd20c8
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$3.29
Total PnL
$-53.81
Realised
$-0.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.33
$0.00
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 98.1¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$-0.02
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 19?
2139 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.28
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28?
2047 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.14
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 25?
1118 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.24
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9?
1113 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.23
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 11?
1106 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-7.74
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4?
1094 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.57
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18?
1094 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.28
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 17?
1088 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.33Jul 3, 08:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.19Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 28?$6.14Jun 28, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13?$2.11Jun 13, 01:02 UTC
- REWARD$0.62Jun 5, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?$2.10Jun 4, 06:06 UTC
- REWARD$1.06Jun 4, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.17Jun 2, 02:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.20May 31, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 26?$2.10May 26, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.13May 22, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.12May 21, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.20May 17, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 17?$3.19May 17, 01:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 12?$1.1KMay 12, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 12?$1.1KMay 12, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11?$1.1KMay 11, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11?$1.1KMay 11, 00:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 10?$1.1KMay 10, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 10?$1.1KMay 10, 02:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $346.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 2, 03:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 08:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.