Close-Invitation
0x5113b2664ff778bed9e64c15e20d4caae11fe446
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$41.15
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Kash Patel out by April 30?
1790 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.8K
$71.60
- YES
Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
97 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-12.66
- YES
Will Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
54 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-17.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by April 30?$1.7KApr 28, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027?$1.7KApr 18, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrey Esipenko win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?$44.71Apr 4, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anish Giri win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?$1.3KApr 4, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?$18.15Apr 3, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yi Wei win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?$13.00Apr 3, 09:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?$368.78Apr 3, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrey Esipenko win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?$40.01Apr 3, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anish Giri win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?$1.1KApr 3, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?$63.36Apr 2, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?$18.81Apr 2, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?$282.37Apr 2, 04:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$12.9KApr 2, 01:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?$0.00Mar 31, 23:35 UTC
- REDEEMNATO x Russia military clash in 2025?$0.00Mar 31, 23:35 UTC
- REDEEMFirst to 5k: Gold or ETH?$0.00Mar 31, 23:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1700 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?$0.00Mar 31, 23:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jenna Ortega be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?$0.00Mar 31, 23:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Saif Ali Khan be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?$0.00Mar 31, 23:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pedro Pascal be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?$0.00Mar 31, 23:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $547.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 23:34 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 23:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.