OtherExpires Jun 30, 2026

Kash Patel out by April 30?

Probability

9¢

+0.4pp

24h

-4.3pp

24h Vol

$22.4K

Liquidity

$26.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-14.8pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:09

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 9¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 1570.8h
LOW
13:10Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
13:09Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -5.0pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -7.2pp
to 8¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability down -6.2pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -3.1pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -6.5pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -6.3pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -7.7pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -3.6pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability down -3.6pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -5.2pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.9pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -5.5pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -4.7pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.8pp
to 15¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -8.0pp
to 15¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.7pp
to 16¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -8.9pp
to 16¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -9.4pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -10.6pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -12.4pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -14.8pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -16.8pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -16.4pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -16.5pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -13.1pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -13.5pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventKash Patel out by...?

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket