Grown-Adapter
0x516cb971ec49c78a4eee406d05e54a3be3a5eb2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$121.35
Total PnL
$-131.41
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?
156 shares @ 76.9¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$91.31
$-28.69
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?
40 shares @ 62.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$30.04
$5.04
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
6667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
536 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
440 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?
100 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.61
- YES
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?
80 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- INDIANA FEVER
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries
37 shares @ 53.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?$25.00May 30, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?$25.38May 29, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?$121.11May 29, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIndiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries$20.28May 29, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?$20.00May 29, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$218.24May 28, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$120.00May 27, 12:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?$124.04May 27, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?$3.00May 27, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?$120.00May 27, 02:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$12.16May 27, 02:45 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$54.60May 27, 02:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?$56.84May 27, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?$88.80May 26, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?$87.94May 26, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?$89.00May 26, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?$89.92May 26, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?$85.73May 25, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$50.00May 24, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$50.00May 24, 16:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $41.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 22, 14:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 05:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".