Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 8.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration officially announces any new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions could include measures like new or increased tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions. Sanctions against Chinese citizens or entities which do not directly target the Chinese state or members of the Chinese government will not qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of when or whether or when the announced sanctions go into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.