Impassioned-Moonscape
0x517fb680c99c7d1e619f9073681e20a68265933f
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$92.45
Win rate
18%
62 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
991 shares @ 50.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$897.13
$401.48
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
798 shares @ 50.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$562.48
$163.56
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
859 shares @ 50.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$150.31
$-279.15
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
980 shares @ 3.8¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$122.50
$84.81
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
537 shares @ 3.4¢·now 7.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$38.96
$20.43
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
729 shares @ 3.8¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.99
$2.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 3?
48 shares @ 9.1¢·now 32.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$15.47
$11.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 3?
33 shares @ 50.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$13.04
$-3.26
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
100 shares @ 3.8¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$12.50
$8.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 3?
37 shares @ 9.1¢·now 33.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$12.39
$9.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 3?$1.30Aug 3, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on August 3?$0.19Aug 3, 03:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 3?$0.02Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 3?$0.76Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 3?$4.26Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 3?$5.39Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 3?$1.00Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Beijing on August 3?$0.00Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 3?$20.00Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 3?$1.04Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 3?$2.00Aug 3, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 4?$2.17Aug 3, 03:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 3?$1.98Aug 3, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 3?$12.20Aug 3, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 3?$1.00Aug 3, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 3?$2.60Aug 3, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?$1.40Aug 3, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?$1.40Aug 3, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?$0.83Aug 3, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?$0.57Aug 3, 02:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 62 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
62 closed markets, 18% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 02:55 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 03:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 62 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.