Unwilling-Conviction
0x51a5267ed55d1ea82276f0f1bd637c01058a5fb1
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$3.90
Total PnL
$-23.65
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.59
$0.59
- YES
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
9 shares @ 20.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.41
$-1.46
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.35
$-0.65
- YES
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-20?
182 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump and Machado hug by Friday?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- HANFMANN
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Yannick Hanfmann
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will André Ventura win less than 16% of votes in the first round?
42 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.64
- NO
Will André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?
30 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.39
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?$1.00Jan 29, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?$1.71Jan 28, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?$2.00Jan 28, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?$1.00Jan 28, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYDelaware State Hornets vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs$1.00Jan 27, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?$2.31Jan 23, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?$2.00Jan 22, 23:54 UTC
- REDEEMCavaliers vs. Hornets$1.67Jan 22, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYCavaliers vs. Hornets$1.00Jan 21, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Bad Luck vs MAGICOS (BO3) - CCT South America Series #7 Group Stage$3.00Jan 21, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: 9INE vs K27 (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffs$1.54Jan 21, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during WEF Address on January 21?$1.35Jan 21, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In Group C$1.78Jan 21, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: HOTU vs Sangal (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffs$2.00Jan 21, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21?$1.24Jan 21, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Bebop vs ALLINNERS (BO3) - European Pro League Series 4 Group A$1.50Jan 21, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In Group C$1.00Jan 21, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 9INE vs K27 (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffs$1.00Jan 21, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: HOTU vs Sangal (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier Playoffs$1.00Jan 21, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLHonor of Kings: EDward Gaming vs Qing Jiu Club (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 1$1.86Jan 21, 10:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 19, 19:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 29, 15:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.