U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?
Probability
30¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4816.6h
- 07:26SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 30¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.5pp at Jun 10, 15:00 UTC (to 29¢).
Show top 8 of 41 hourly moves
- Jun 12, 02:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 29¢
- Jun 12, 00:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 29¢
- Jun 10, 18:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 29¢
- Jun 10, 15:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 29¢
- Jun 10, 11:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 29¢
- Jun 10, 06:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 30¢
- Jun 9, 19:00 UTC · -7.0pp → 29¢
- Jun 9, 15:00 UTC · -5.5pp → 30¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
11- 9¢+0.4
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 23¢-0.5
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $2.60
- 17¢0.0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+1.0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 11¢-0.5
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 15¢0.0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 7¢-1.0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 17¢0.0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
Politics · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
signed into lawReason
Legislation signed into law — Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?"?
As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 07:26:03 GMT, YES is priced at 30% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -4.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.