0x525ac7cc05e6ff7e777b8d0c52ae39def8bf7f07
0x525ac7cc05e6ff7e777b8d0c52ae39def8bf7f07
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$3.92
Total PnL
$-29.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $140 end of July?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.93
$0.42
- YES
Will Tadej Pogačar finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 91.6¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.92
$0.42
- YES
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
21 shares @ 7.5¢·now 4.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$0.87
$-0.72
- YES
Will Paul Seixas win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.82
$-1.68
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
23 shares @ 4.4¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.38
$-0.63
- YES
Will Tim Merlier be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will Norway win the World Cup?
88 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.28
- ALESSANDRA MAZZOLA
Palermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri
19 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by June 30?
10 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
5 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPalermo: Alessandra Mazzola vs Dalila Spiteri$14.19Jul 20, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBloomfield Hills: Blaise Bicknell vs Adam Walton$15.12Jul 20, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBloomfield Hills: Blaise Bicknell vs Adam Walton$23.26Jul 20, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$23.52Jul 20, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$13.23Jul 20, 14:41 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$11.56Jul 20, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$32.00Jul 20, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$30.87Jul 20, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$2.59Jul 20, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$5.94Jul 20, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$5.28Jul 20, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$6.41Jul 20, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jonas Vingegaard finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?$0.00Jul 20, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Biniam Girmay be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$0.01Jul 20, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$3.86Jul 20, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?$1.89Jul 20, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$7.28Jul 20, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$4.59Jul 20, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$25.00Jul 20, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$25.20Jul 20, 13:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $10.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 23:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 21:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.