Probable-Mrna
0x525fafa761b120c0e452320f7af9f7c2f911b707
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$21.81
Total PnL
$-965.92
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?
12 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$12.47
$2.62
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
252 shares @ 50.9¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$2.52
$-125.47
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
333 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.50
$-97.50
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
8 shares @ 63.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.47
$-3.53
- YES
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
32 shares @ 31.2¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.44
$-8.56
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
22 shares @ 64.3¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.41
$-12.59
- NO
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?
1222 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?
968 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?
540 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-62.08
- YES
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?
409 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$29.13Jun 7, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?$29.10Jun 7, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$14.00Jun 7, 19:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?$5.10Jun 7, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLKraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?$8.93Jun 7, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?$98.86Jun 7, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$12.89Jun 7, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?$1.96Jun 7, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?$15.12Jun 7, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?$17.59Jun 7, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?$27.78Jun 7, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?$23.53Jun 7, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$135.49Apr 13, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$5.19Apr 13, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$14.64Apr 13, 12:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$63.38Apr 10, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?$91.85Apr 10, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?$9.90Apr 9, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?$20.00Apr 9, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYOneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?$10.00Apr 9, 19:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $24.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 17:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 7, 20:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.