Probable-Mrna
0x525fafa761b120c0e452320f7af9f7c2f911b707
Quality score
73/100
Open positions
35
Open notional
$199.42
Total PnL
$-865.95
Realised
$-24.54
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
582 shares @ 19.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.57
$-64.03
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
333 shares @ 30.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$28.33
$-71.67
- YES
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?
24 shares @ 63.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$22.22
$7.22
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?
18 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$17.59
$7.92
- NO
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?
12 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$12.47
$2.62
- YES
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
28 shares @ 72.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.36
$-7.64
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
14 shares @ 73.7¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$11.79
$1.79
- YES
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?
968 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$10.16
$-9.84
- YES
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 22.2¢·now 14.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.80
$-3.10
- YES
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
32 shares @ 31.2¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.77
$-4.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$135.4912d ago
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$5.1912d ago
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$14.6412d ago
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$63.3815d ago
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?$91.8516d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?$9.9016d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?$20.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYOneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYWill any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?$20.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYWill UAE strike Iran by April 30?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?$10.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?$5.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?$5.0016d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?$30.0016d ago
Score breakdown
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $27.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 16d ago
- Last active
- 12d ago
Score is a 0–100 composite of open position size, breadth (number of trades), realised + unrealised ROI, win rate on closed markets, and category specialisation.