Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$868.2K
Liquidity
$3.4M
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 18:11SignalHIGH
Signal · Clustered NO flow
25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.
- 18:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 18:07TradeMEDIUM
Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K
@ 88¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 100¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 100¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 100¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 100¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 100¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.7pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.7pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.3pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.7pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.1pp
to 100¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.2pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.9pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.8pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.4pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.4pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.9pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.1pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.3pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.9pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.9pp
to 100¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.8pp
to 100¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
25- SELLUP4m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- SELLYES4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYDOWN4m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE4m ago
- BUYYES4m ago
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 15, 2026
- Resolution source
- UMA status
- disputed
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: disputed
- No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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