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OtherExpires Apr 15, 2026

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$868.2K

Liquidity

$3.4M

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.9pp 7d
Apr 17, 2026, 20:00Apr 24, 2026, 18:10
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 18:11Signal

    Signal · Clustered NO flow

    25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.

    HIGH
  • 18:11Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • 18:07Trade

    Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K

    @ 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 3.8pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 3.8pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Price

    Probability up 7.7pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.6pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.7pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.5pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.3pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.7pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.1pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 29.2pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 12.9pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.8pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.4pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.4pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.1pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.9pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.1pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.3pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.9pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 20.5pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.9pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.8pp

    to 100¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Apr 15, 2026
Resolution source
UMA status
disputed
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: disputed
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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