Sociable-Assertion-Poignance
0x526b0cc86494c0cd46fa6d36eaa8d1ab26b5cdee
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$279.54
Total PnL
$4.04
Realised
$20.14
Win rate
100%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?
25 shares @ 92.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.88
$-0.22
- NO
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?
23 shares @ 92.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.22
$-0.86
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.10
$-0.10
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
20 shares @ 93.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.90
$-0.70
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
20 shares @ 93.2¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.90
$-0.75
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 88.5¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.31
$-0.40
- NO
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?
18 shares @ 89.8¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.16
$-0.24
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
20 shares @ 80.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.29
$-0.85
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
20 shares @ 93.7¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.50
$-4.25
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
15 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$14.18
$-0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$4.42Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$4.43Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$4.40Jul 22, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?$18.80Jul 22, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$4.39Jul 22, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$0.11Jul 22, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? $4.55Jul 22, 08:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?$11.85Jul 22, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.79Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.98Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.98Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.98Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.98Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.10Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.88Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.98Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.98Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.98Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?$0.98Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$0.04Jul 21, 21:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 00:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.