U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Probability
18¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.0K
Liquidity
$22.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $22.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.1h
- 14:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:53PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 18¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 18¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 18¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).