0x52870486f74fcd2fe707821b9aa8da0f6d8c3a16
0x52870486f74fcd2fe707821b9aa8da0f6d8c3a16
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-723.62
Realised
$-591.12
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
2248 shares @ 75.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$1.5K
$-168.60
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6309 shares @ 20.2¢·now 21.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.3K
$59.94
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
1104 shares @ 21.3¢·now 21.1¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$233.50
$-1.66
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
342 shares @ 23.4¢·now 21.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$72.18
$-7.87
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
253 shares @ 22.8¢·now 21.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$53.83
$-3.88
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
125 shares @ 16.8¢·now 8.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.44
$-10.56
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$2.26
$0.04
- NO
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
1 shares @ 83.5¢·now 91.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.97
$0.09
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$65.84Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$9.23Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$131.13Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$151.04Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$565.66Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$50.56Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$82.62Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$175.17Jul 28, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$6.18Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.62Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.49Jul 28, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.04Jul 28, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.49Jul 28, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.26Jul 28, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.49Jul 28, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$383.81Jul 28, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.01Jul 28, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.01Jul 28, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$235.15Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$57.23Jul 28, 15:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $188.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 03:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.