Secret-Relaxation
0x529f0d8e6424b4fd20038c3b6a6322d76479ffd4
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
151
Open notional
$0.01
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$4.9K
Win rate
6%
78 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 151- YES
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?
20 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$0.01
$-0.03
- YES
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea?
751707 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2025$0.00
$-751.71
- YES
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?
483233 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2025$0.00
$-483.23
- YES
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?
88490 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-88.41
- YES
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
85922 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-92.71
- YES
Netanyahu out by April 30?
69658 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-114.73
- YES
Netanyahu out by July 31?
49833 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-52.62
- NO
Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?
46800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-62.34
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
36383 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-72.77
- NO
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?
35200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-68.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Manchester City 2 - 3 Atletico Madrid?$8.93Aug 9, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Atletico Madrid win on 2026-08-09?$31.15Aug 9, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Manchester City 1 - 3 Atletico Madrid?$11.18Aug 9, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Manchester City 1 - 3 Atletico Madrid?$3.74Aug 9, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?$0.71Aug 6, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?$0.04Aug 6, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?$2.05Aug 6, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?$0.12Aug 6, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?$0.18Aug 6, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?$0.41Aug 6, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Korea hike by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?$0.04Aug 6, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?$6.13Aug 6, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$38.67Jul 31, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$10.23Jul 31, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.44Jul 29, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.00Jul 29, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.00Jul 29, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.16Jul 29, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.40Jul 29, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.68Jul 29, 16:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 78 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
78 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 10:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 78 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.