SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Sep 2, 2026
Creator

Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?

Probability

0¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-0.3pp

24h Vol

$194.70

Liquidity

$347.97

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

10% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    10% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
9
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$500
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$348
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage118/148 runtime-backed0 unmapped

not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Sep 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source

Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.

Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
0¢
Jun 15, 2026, 17:00 UTCJun 18, 2026, 13:34 UTC
updated 13:34:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-18T13-34Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $348 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome.

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 0¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Sep 2, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1814.4h

    LOW
  • 13:34Signal

    Resolution risk

    Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -49.0pp at 09:00 (to 0¢).

Show 7 hourly moves
  • 13:34 · -48.0pp → 0¢
  • 12:00 · -49.0pp → 1¢
  • 10:00 · -49.0pp → 0¢
  • 09:00 · -49.0pp → 0¢
  • 08:00 · -48.9pp → 1¢
  • 06:00 · -48.9pp → 1¢
  • 05:00 · -48.8pp → 1¢
updated 13:34:55 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:34:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhere will Vinicius Junior transfer?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the next team Vinicius Junior officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Vinicius Junior does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Real Madrid". If Vinicius Junior joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Vinicius Junior is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Real Madrid and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

manchester city

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "manchester city" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Vinicius Junior join Manchester City?"?

As of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 13:34:55 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.3pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Sep 2, 2026 (2026-09-02T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$194.70 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $269.70. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $347.97. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

9 wallets
Open on Polymarket