0x530c99ed11042f47c48e186a72e71b9b8e8a529f
0x530c99ed11042f47c48e186a72e71b9b8e8a529f
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
92
Open notional
$759.44
Total PnL
$-410.63
Realised
$-3.60
Win rate
13%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 92- YES
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
102 shares @ 81.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$84.53
$2.04
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 26?
69 shares @ 73.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$69.12
$18.61
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
87 shares @ 80.6¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$60.25
$-9.62
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 20?
57 shares @ 85.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$56.92
$8.45
- YES
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?
54 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$53.87
$12.93
- BILIBILI GAMING
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2
50 shares @ 81.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$50.42
$9.46
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22?
49 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$49.39
$8.40
- YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22?
48 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$48.30
$7.24
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21?
43 shares @ 82.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$43.40
$7.57
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
37 shares @ 74.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$37.21
$9.48
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.