0x531b7b4cda61f1ba2e12f809e2e66173f60cda26
0x531b7b4cda61f1ba2e12f809e2e66173f60cda26
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-91.18
Win rate
20%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 22?
594 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-8.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7?
446 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 26?
388 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or below on April 24?
223 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 26?
218 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 30?
203 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 19?
201 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-29.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 4?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 18?
191 shares @ 28.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-55.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on April 17?
190 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
- TRADESELLFrance vs. Spain: O/U 7.5$25.43Jul 14, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: O/U 7.5$26.00Jul 14, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs magic (BO3) - RES Showdown Europe Playoffs$2.66Jul 10, 16:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$11.73Jul 1, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$12.00Jul 1, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$11.75Jul 1, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$12.00Jul 1, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$10.78Jun 29, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$11.00Jun 29, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$11.72Jun 28, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$12.00Jun 28, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1.96Jun 28, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$2.00Jun 28, 06:29 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$29.34Jun 28, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$30.00Jun 28, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$117.39Jun 28, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$120.00Jun 28, 06:15 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by June 30?$10.77Jun 28, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by June 30?$11.00Jun 28, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$10.76Jun 28, 05:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $19.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 22:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 15:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.