Bony-Novel
0x53515560de479cb8bec53a517bcd9fb2f66dc7ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
72
Open notional
$7.0K
Total PnL
$-8.1K
Realised
$1.1K
Win rate
75%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 72- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
1800 shares @ 92.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.7K
$32.40
- NO
Waymo IPO before 2027?
905 shares @ 85.7¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$873.60
$97.89
- NO
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
866 shares @ 80.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$779.54
$86.80
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
719 shares @ 76.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$629.54
$77.55
- YES
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
3640 shares @ 47.5¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$527.75
$-1.2K
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
520 shares @ 83.4¢·now 88.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$459.34
$25.48
- NO
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
865 shares @ 46.3¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$402.34
$1.79
- NO
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?
400 shares @ 83.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$377.77
$45.80
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
3400 shares @ 17.1¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$323.00
$-257.00
- NO
New pandemic in 2026?
333 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$305.03
$5.03
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$964.08Jul 10, 13:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $147.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 07:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.