Optimal-Macaroni
0x536b4c3876aadd627aa5bb38404a786159951fdd
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$27.91
Total PnL
$-573.93
Realised
$2.28
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
13 shares @ 15.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$13.33
$11.33
- YES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
57 shares @ 13.3¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.58
$4.99
- YES
Obama arrested before 2027?
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 7.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.90
$0.90
- YES
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
14 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.09
$-3.91
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Prince Andrew loses Duke of York title by December 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 10?
575 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$2.00Feb 3, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYObama arrested before 2027?$1.00Dec 17, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEagles vs. Chargers$1.50Dec 7, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYColts vs. Jaguars$1.50Dec 7, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?$1.00Dec 7, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?$1.00Dec 6, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?$1.00Dec 6, 07:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?$8.33Dec 6, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLMacron out in 2025?$0.40Dec 3, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$0.18Dec 3, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLXi Jinping out in 2025?$0.41Dec 3, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?$0.38Dec 3, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?$0.31Dec 3, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?$1.00Dec 3, 04:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?$10.42Dec 3, 04:47 UTC
- REDEEMBills vs. Steelers$2.74Dec 1, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMCardinals vs. Buccaneers$2.92Dec 1, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?$1.00Nov 30, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?$1.00Nov 30, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?$1.00Nov 30, 19:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 25, 18:57 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 3, 16:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".