Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Probability
15¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$384.14
Liquidity
$49.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6000.6h
- 23:25SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6001h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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