Instructive-Omelet
0x536d54308c74ba1ddfe502811149faa683b601e6
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$14.44
Total PnL
$-6.21
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31?
3 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.77
$0.03
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.29
$0.01
- NO
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$1.72
$0.01
- NO
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.64
$0.00
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.42
$0.00
- NO
Will Opendoor reach $10 in April?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$1.24
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?
1 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$1.16
$0.01
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?
1 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$1.16
$0.02
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.04
$0.01
- YES
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
4 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-2.05
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Craig Nash win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$1.15Jul 14, 02:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill PH win the 2026 Johor general elections?$1.70Jul 11, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Craig Nash win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$1.15Jul 11, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Johor general elections?$1.64Jul 11, 03:58 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 2?$1.07Jul 5, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 2?$1.07Jul 5, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the People’s Bank of China increase rates in June?$1.07Jul 1, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be less than $1,072,000 on June 30?$1.17Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China increase rates in June?$1.07Jun 29, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be less than $1,072,000 on June 30?$1.17Jun 29, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$1.08Jun 16, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20?$1.07Jun 16, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20?$1.07Jun 15, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?$1.07Jun 15, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31?$2.74Jun 1, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 8?$1.42May 9, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor reach $10 in April?$1.24Apr 30, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$1.71Apr 29, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?$1.14Apr 29, 03:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?$1.15Apr 15, 07:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 23, 03:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 02:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.