Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 130h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $2.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.