Ripe-Mezzanine
0x539d04ce381edb57d87d4cbfe9644c3ecfa70213
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
94
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$-1.7K
Win rate
25%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 94- NO
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
1407 shares @ 64.8¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$213.46
- YES
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?
4276 shares @ 26.4¢·now 11.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$478.93
$-650.18
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1784 shares @ 4.6¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$40.14
$-42.05
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?
40 shares @ 83.9¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.40
$2.84
- NO
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 36.4¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$19.38
$10.28
- YES
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?
152 shares @ 25.7¢·now 10.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.54
$-23.40
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
546 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$13.87
$0.76
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
747 shares @ 2.2¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.08
$-6.24
- NO
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
15 shares @ 86.7¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.06
$-2.67
- YES
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?
162 shares @ 16.4¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.83
$-17.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?$0.12Jul 11, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMNo one announced as next James Bond?$0.29Jul 11, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin not meet?$1.00Jul 11, 11:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
32 closed markets, 25% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $4.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 13:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.