Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Probability
8¢
1h
-0.2pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$418.11
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14732.0h
Price movement
-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.8pp at 3d ago (to 9¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 08:00 · -3.7pp → 8¢
- 06:00 · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 05:00 · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 03:00 · -3.8pp → 8¢
- 02:00 · -3.6pp → 8¢
- 00:00 · -3.9pp → 8¢
- 23:00 · -3.9pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · -5.8pp → 9¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
13- 9¢+0.5pp
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $15.44
- 11¢+0.1pp
Probable FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 12¢-0.3pp
Probable FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 8¢+1.1pp
Probable FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 42¢+1.4pp
Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 11¢+0.4pp
Probable FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 3¢0.0pp
Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Other · Vol $436.6K
- 36¢-1.1pp
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $367.6K
- 11¢0.0pp
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $263.6K
- 12¢+1.4pp
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
Other · Vol $256.4K
- 56¢+2.0pp
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27?
Other · Vol $236.5K
- 30¢+25.9pp
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?
Other · Vol $222.6K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryusing the total token supply multiplied by the token priceLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.