Violent-Disdain
0x54ca5b9b461240c014927075a8c9905b5a3f7e84
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$17.69
Total PnL
$-380.05
Realised
$37.81
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?
99 shares @ 90.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.39
$-78.64
- YES
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
44 shares @ 12.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.83
$-2.39
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
150 shares @ 3.3¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.02
$-2.93
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
36 shares @ 13.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.35
$-3.33
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.10
$0.10
- WIZARDS
Timberwolves vs. Wizards
1200 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-14.50
- YES
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?
400 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-72.10
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 24?
238 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 19, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?$55.20May 18, 16:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $14.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 7, 01:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.