Sparse-Traffic
0x54e15a0a77e3147ac78831804e5dde13cb589d5a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$16.8K
Total PnL
$18.9K
Realised
$9.9K
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
24469 shares @ 19.8¢·now 35.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.6K
$3.8K
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
5979 shares @ 15.0¢·now 93.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$4.7K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
117378 shares @ 0.8¢·now 1.1¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.3K
$380.54
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
4828 shares @ 11.8¢·now 19.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$953.61
$382.17
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
3652 shares @ 9.1¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$308.63
$-23.27
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
91 shares @ 6.6¢·now 4.9¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$4.47
$-1.53
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3750 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-82.50
- YES
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3750 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-75.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.20Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?$217.58Jul 27, 10:49 UTC
- REWARD$1.30Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?$9.00Jul 26, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$2.31Jul 26, 10:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.15Jul 25, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$16.21Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$4.19Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?$105.14Jul 24, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?$5.40Jul 24, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?$1.68Jul 24, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?$30.50Jul 24, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$5.0KJul 24, 09:12 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$38.49Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?$4.85Jul 24, 00:21 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.43Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$14.85Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?$2.38Jul 23, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?$6.28Jul 23, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?$412.23Jul 23, 12:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $696.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 12:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.