Sick-Regulator
0x5685bf6758facce7d1221d3cc3ab0fdb836a62e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$81.6K
Total PnL
$6.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
16887 shares @ 86.2¢·now 91.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$15.4K
$856.52
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
16534 shares @ 91.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.0K
$-136.95
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
14721 shares @ 67.9¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.6K
$3.6K
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
9455 shares @ 80.6¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.3K
$652.09
- YES
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
7217 shares @ 85.2¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$7.0K
$818.74
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
7502 shares @ 80.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.0K
$-36.23
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
3352 shares @ 94.6¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.3K
$161.85
- YES
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
4600 shares @ 81.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$3.3K
$-413.21
- YES
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
3236 shares @ 83.4¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.8K
$115.76
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
2978 shares @ 67.2¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.6K
$575.54
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.21Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$84.43Jul 28, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4.81Jul 28, 13:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.20Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.20Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.20Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.20Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.19Jul 24, 14:05 UTC
- YIELD$1.19Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.35Jul 23, 02:24 UTC
- YIELD$1.18Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.17Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$100.81Jul 21, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?$100.81Jul 21, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$28.24Jul 21, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?$28.24Jul 21, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$1.17Jul 21, 21:58 UTC
- YIELD$1.17Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.17Jul 21, 01:19 UTC
- YIELD$1.17Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $365.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 15:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.