Brilliant-Variable
0x56a4960d6f1695e2d8d17c29f8b18b61a5d3e27f
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
39
Open notional
$54.37
Total PnL
$-178.19
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.96
$0.00
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?
10 shares @ 96.8¢·now 98.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$9.89
$0.21
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?
10 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.88
$0.01
- NO
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 97.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.52
$0.52
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.20
$0.20
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.00
$-0.00
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
2 shares @ 99.5¢·now 98.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.88
$-0.12
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.07
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?$9.88Jul 11, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?$9.96Jul 11, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?$9.70Jul 11, 03:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?$2.03Jul 2, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$2.50Jul 1, 09:26 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by June 30?$1.09Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.33Jun 18, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill England win on 2026-06-17?$100.00Jun 17, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-06-17?$57.74Jun 17, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-17?$7.65Jun 17, 06:02 UTC
- REWARD$2.72Jun 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?$73.66Jun 11, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?$9.33Jun 11, 12:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?$1.00Jun 11, 12:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$78.16Jun 11, 11:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.00Jun 11, 11:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?$1.00Jun 11, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$0.09Jun 11, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.43Jun 11, 10:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $20.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 17:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 03:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.