Treasured-Chauffeur
0x56c9a9f38ec00385863d30c948185a9ec18b8606
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$8.89
Total PnL
$-3.95
Realised
$-0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.31
$0.00
- NO
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.26
$-0.00
- NO
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
1 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.07
$0.02
- NO
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.07
$0.00
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 47.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.05
$-0.17
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.04
$0.00
- NO
Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $120?
4 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.70
- YES
Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
2 shares @ 58.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.04Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.09Jul 11, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $130?$1.21Jul 10, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.09Jul 10, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.03Jul 10, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $130?$1.21Jul 5, 08:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$1.24Jul 1, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.26Jun 28, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?$1.23Jun 28, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.06Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
- REDEEMAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 15?$1.14Jun 16, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.03Jun 13, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother GTA VI trailer released by June 15?$1.09Jun 13, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?$2.31May 30, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.04May 9, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 14?$1.09Apr 30, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?$1.10Apr 30, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMLecornu out as French PM by December 31?$1.32Apr 30, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill France strike Iran by March 31?$1.64Apr 30, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYCrude Oil all time high by April 30?$1.08Apr 30, 04:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $4.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 22, 01:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.