Assured-Bag
0x56e46b1f577fbe0770a22abf53f7e5cf45f26ee4
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
78
Open notional
$396.89
Total PnL
$-71.38
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- NO
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
22 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$19.03
$-0.11
- YES
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
18 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$15.57
$0.27
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
17 shares @ 88.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$14.54
$-0.42
- NO
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
23 shares @ 73.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$13.41
$-3.47
- YES
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
11 shares @ 73.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$8.30
$0.28
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
8 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$8.00
$3.04
- YES
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
24 shares @ 34.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$7.68
$-0.48
- NO
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
23 shares @ 35.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$7.59
$-0.46
- NO
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?
9 shares @ 57.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$7.47
$2.34
- ZEU5 ESPORTS
LoL: Zeu5 Esports vs 3v Team (BO5) - LRN Playoffs
11 shares @ 81.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$7.26
$-1.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNew York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians$5.42Aug 4, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYK-League Allstars vs. Manchester City: O/U 3.5$4.88Aug 4, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYGrodzisk Mazowiecki: Ergi Kirkin vs Ilya Ivashka$5.13Aug 4, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: 7REX vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season$6.00Aug 4, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMSan Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$10.00Aug 4, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMNational Bank Open: Aleksandar Vukic vs Daniel Altmaier$12.00Aug 4, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season$29.00Aug 4, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMPittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers$14.00Aug 4, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine target Moscow by August 7, 2026?$4.69Aug 4, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5$5.06Aug 4, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYHagen: Zsombor Piros vs Daniel Rincon$5.27Aug 4, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$16.88Aug 4, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target a Arab country on August 7, 2026?$4.86Aug 4, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Clara Tauson vs Nikola Bartunkova$5.09Aug 4, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia target Kyiv by August 14, 2026?$5.28Aug 4, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-05?$4.88Aug 4, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-05?$3.11Aug 4, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Team Solid vs INTZ e-Sports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season$7.00Aug 4, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5$11.00Aug 4, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Shark Attack vs DIA Ozarox Esports (BO3) - TCL Play-Ins$5.25Aug 4, 01:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $7.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 16:53 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 10:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.