Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Probability
72¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$16.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2420.7h
- 03:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2421h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 71¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 73¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).