Grand-Beak
0x571581ccb605f35f0af032723cbfc5b3f4a41616
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-422.56
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
8203 shares @ 19.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$779.25
$-820.88
- YES
Iran leadership change by July 31?
20271 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$131.76
$-687.97
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
1609 shares @ 4.5¢·now 3.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$55.51
$-16.49
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
1055 shares @ 9.5¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.47
$-81.53
- YES
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 3.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.50
$-18.50
- YES
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.50
$-11.50
- YES
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
821 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.87
$-37.13
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
1300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.95
$-11.05
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
7606 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-339.23
- YES
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2346 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$3.9KJul 28, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$571.47Jul 28, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$52.00Jul 28, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$647.44Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.2KJul 28, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$30.00Jul 28, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$178.00Jul 28, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$6.00Jul 28, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$16.00Jul 28, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$500.00Jul 28, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$363.00Jul 28, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$20.00Jul 28, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$200.00Jul 28, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$800.00Jul 28, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$30.00Jul 28, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$491.88Jul 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$1.49Jul 28, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$1.49Jul 28, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$40.00Jul 28, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$500.00Jul 28, 09:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
9/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$11.5K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $423.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 09:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.