GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Probability

21¢

-0.5pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$5.5K

Liquidity

$25.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:35

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 21¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 5983.4h
LOW
16:35Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
06:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket