Frail-Oatmeal
0x57c767ddfe1164aed4573e62ad6bca38004104a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$168.47
Total PnL
$11.67
Realised
$0.63
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
426 shares @ 7.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$57.31
$27.49
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
49 shares @ 83.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$48.82
$7.80
- YES
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
21 shares @ 62.3¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$14.85
$1.53
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
14 shares @ 66.5¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$13.26
$4.03
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
13 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.52
$0.44
- NO
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 66.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.18
$2.41
- NO
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
20 shares @ 35.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.98
$-0.88
- YES
Will Plovdiv host Eurovision 2027?
386 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.89
$1.66
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
14 shares @ 46.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.53
$-4.11
- YES
Will Varna host Eurovision 2027?
12 shares @ 9.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.13
$-0.95
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$7.36Jul 3, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$7.36Jul 3, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$7.36Jul 3, 23:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$7.75Jul 2, 07:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fake News" during remarks at the Burning Hills Amphitheater?$14.76Jul 1, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake News" during remarks at the Burning Hills Amphitheater?$7.38Jul 1, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.52Jul 1, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$3.33Jul 1, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$2.91Jul 1, 10:28 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$78.88Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.08Jun 26, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$6.55Jun 26, 21:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $7.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 13:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.