Untidy-Hail
0x57eeae7424baf2b265a7a43bedd18b22a9618416
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$59.48
Total PnL
$-49.89
Realised
$0.67
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
12 shares @ 25.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.14
$1.14
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
13 shares @ 33.4¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.46
$-0.74
- YES
Will there be no next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?
6 shares @ 48.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.41
$0.41
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
19 shares @ 24.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.28
$-1.22
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 31.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.19
$0.40
- YES
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
9 shares @ 31.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.15
$0.36
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 42.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.98
$0.04
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
8 shares @ 40.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$2.85
$-0.15
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$2.55
$-0.39
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
5 shares @ 49.8¢·now 50.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.54
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be greater than 80k?$1.11Jul 21, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$2.94Jul 21, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be greater than 80k?$0.43Jul 21, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$2.94Jul 21, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1.57Jul 21, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.20 in July?$2.55Jul 21, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$2.49Jul 21, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?$3.00Jul 20, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?$2.71Jul 20, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$3.55Jul 20, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$5.25Jul 20, 17:29 UTC
- REDEEMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$7.00Jul 20, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$2.73Jul 20, 13:13 UTC
- TRADESELLChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$3.19Jul 20, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$0.14Jul 20, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$0.22Jul 20, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$0.03Jul 20, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$2.60Jul 20, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 23?$2.55Jul 20, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?$2.29Jul 19, 22:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 09:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.