Wallet digest

active

Activity score

29/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-27.7K

Realised

$-61.73

Win rate

12 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 13

NO
Will France win on 2026-06-26?
46684 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-16.8K
NO
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?
13699 shares @ 70.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-9.7K
NO
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?
2000 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-220.00
REMY BERTOLA
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola
1000 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-790.00
YES
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?
100 shares @ 30.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$0.00
$-30.20
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6AM ET
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7AM ET
100 shares @ 30.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-30.74
ZERO TENACITY
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs
82 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-10.66
HAWKS
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks
66 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-8.58
NINJAS IN PYJAMAS
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
30 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-3.30

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$5.30Jul 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.38Jul 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.91Jul 19, 01:04 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.20Jul 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$17.80Jul 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$30.76Jul 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.06Jul 8, 00:55 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$25.46Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$18.40Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.12Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$18.30Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$38.79Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$64.15Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?$60.6KJun 28, 01:41 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$113.55Jun 28, 00:45 UTC
REWARD$3.56Jun 28, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-27?$30.3KJun 27, 11:47 UTC
REDEEMWill Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw?$33.1KJun 27, 02:18 UTC
REDEEMWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?$46.3KJun 27, 02:15 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$216.75Jun 27, 00:45 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

29/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 12 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence40 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry31 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk59 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 26
Avg trade size: $4.1K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 25, 21:00 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 12 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data