Embellished-Farming
0x588c80e8b35cdb5e3e5963164793ed526e3614f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$323.64
Total PnL
$-212.36
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
201 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$201.31
$1.31
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
123 shares @ 97.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$122.33
$2.33
- YES
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?
178 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-176.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?
40 shares @ 99.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$200.07Jul 7, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?$120.11Jul 7, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?$154.57Jul 4, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$171.72Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWorld Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?$150.22Jun 24, 06:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$133.50Jun 18, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$170.00Jun 13, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$120.00Jun 13, 13:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$279.96Jun 13, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$278.00May 21, 14:10 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$149.22May 21, 13:33 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 15?$153.43May 21, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 15?$150.00May 13, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$144.20May 13, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?$267.74May 13, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?$266.00Apr 17, 10:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?$120.72Apr 17, 10:35 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$163.10Apr 17, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?$120.00Apr 14, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$160.00Apr 14, 18:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $182.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 30, 16:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 11:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.