Perfect-Snow
0x588d8ad70dcbb3d54edb757b47b0c9b68171563d
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
46
Open notional
$57.58
Total PnL
$-730.87
Realised
$-12.60
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
795 shares @ 6.6¢·now 4.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.98
$-17.20
- YES
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
521 shares @ 5.8¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.60
$-7.54
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
6862 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-105.19
- NO
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
3020 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.98
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
2439 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- NO
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?
752 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-37.61
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
538 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-40.10
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
332 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?$1.35Jul 25, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?$2.70Jul 25, 17:02 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$7.48Jul 25, 17:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$17.38Jul 19, 11:55 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$17.10Jul 19, 11:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. England end in a draw?$26.96Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$10.00Jul 17, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$20.89Jul 16, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$10.00Jul 16, 04:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYLai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?$5.19Jul 15, 23:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$103.13Jul 15, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$16.64Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?$16.37Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$34.12Jul 14, 23:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $17.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 17:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.