Serpentine-Input
0x58e0d662cefc86fe0bba5fb09043d74ab6e0ebec
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$31.35
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$29.29
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
28 shares @ 88.5¢·now 77.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$21.38
$-3.07
- NO
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
100 shares @ 7.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$5.50
$-1.50
- NO
Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
50 shares @ 7.3¢·now 3.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$1.85
$-1.80
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?
50 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.35
$-0.05
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-07 House seat?
50 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.27
$-0.18
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
825 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
- RAPTORS
Knicks vs. Raptors
682 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- LNG ESPORTS
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner
650 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-637.00
- HEAT
Heat vs. Magic
366 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- THUNDERTALK GAMING
LoL: Oh My God vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3)
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 17, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?$78.00Jul 22, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?$78.00Jul 22, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?$7.00Jul 22, 11:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$35.12Jul 22, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$42.88Jul 22, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$78.00Jul 22, 06:49 UTC
- REWARD$4.10Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$3.00Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$24.44Jul 21, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$4.50Jul 21, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$45.50Jul 21, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$4.50Jul 21, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$45.50Jul 20, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$45.00Jul 20, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$10.63Jul 20, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$45.00Jul 20, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MA-07 House seat?$1.45Jul 20, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$10.63Jul 20, 07:44 UTC
- REWARD$3.00Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?$1.25Jul 19, 15:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $19.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 15:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 14:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.