Muddy-Trolley
0x598fc5eb1728fe7b4421e7351960ba3178b944c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
88
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-549.93
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- YES
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Chris Fomunyoh win the Cameroon Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Socialist Party win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on October 24?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- TEXAS STATE
James Madison vs. Texas State
110 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-33.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYValorant: Twisted Minds Orchid vs Karmine Corp GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage$2.14Jul 19, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMITF Gubbio: Daniele Rapagnetta vs Maximilian Homberg$2.06Jul 17, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Gubbio: Daniele Rapagnetta vs Maximilian Homberg$1.32Jul 17, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: LUA Gaming vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season$3.08Jul 14, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: LUA Gaming vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season$2.03Jul 13, 11:51 UTC
- REDEEMValorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha$3.07Jul 10, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha$1.86Jul 9, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B$1.87Jun 28, 20:03 UTC
- REDEEMValorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage$2.47Jun 28, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYZuffa Boxing 8: Ochoa vs. Serrano (Lightweight, Prelims)$3.03Jun 27, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage$1.86Jun 27, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9$2.66Jun 26, 18:10 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Dark Moon (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group B$3.75Jun 25, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Dark Moon (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Group B$3.02Jun 24, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage$1.12Jun 23, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage$0.76Jun 23, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage$1.39Jun 23, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin$1.57Jun 20, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Irvine: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Monika Ekstrand$2.26Jun 20, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Irvine: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Monika Ekstrand$0.54Jun 20, 18:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 18:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 13:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.