SportsExpires Jun 28, 2026
Creator

FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin

Probability

82¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+27.5pp

24h Vol

$3.1K

Liquidity

$26.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

71% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    71% source confidence on this opportunity row.

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    5% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
47
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$2k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$26k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage118/148 runtime-backed0 unmapped

not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelsemantic_risk_kernel+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
based on the final score including any overtime periods
Link
easycredit-bbl.de
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
82¢
Jun 20, 2026, 08:00 UTCJun 21, 2026, 11:16 UTC
updated 11:16:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-21T11-16Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 28pp over 24h

    Now 82¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 27.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 28, 14:30 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 171.2h

    LOW
  • 11:16Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 27.5pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 11:16Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+27.5pp over the last 24h, now 82¢.

updated 11:16:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 11:16:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventFC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming Germany BBL game, scheduled for June 21 at 10:30AM ET: If the FC Bayern Munchen win, the market will resolve to "FC Bayern Munchen". If the Alba Berlin win, the market will resolve to "Alba Berlin". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

bkbbl-

Reason

Polymarket German basketball slugs use the bkbbl- prefix; route them to Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin"?

As of Sun, 21 Jun 2026 11:16:28 GMT, YES is priced at 82% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +27.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 28, 2026 (2026-06-28T14:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.easycredit-bbl.de/en/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$3.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $26.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket