Perfect-Causal
0x59b89bd107de41f7356a323e5025a348c31a11a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-381.28
Realised
$-3.34
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
400 shares @ 94.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$387.00
$11.00
- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
400 shares @ 96.7¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$374.20
$-12.65
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
500 shares @ 79.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$350.00
$-45.00
- NO
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
200 shares @ 75.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$153.00
$3.00
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
200 shares @ 69.3¢·now 68.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$137.50
$-1.11
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 58.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$128.00
$12.00
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $8.5B?
200 shares @ 76.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$128.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
500 shares @ 19.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$92.50
$-2.50
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
100 shares @ 66.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.50
$-3.50
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
200 shares @ 28.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$56.98
$0.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 24, 11:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$51.96Jul 23, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$5.00Jul 23, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$9.46Jul 22, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$386.85Jul 22, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?$98.85Jul 22, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?$151.88Jul 22, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$376.00Jul 22, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$395.00Jul 22, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$140.32Jul 22, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?$3.42Jul 22, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$50.75Jul 22, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$25.66Jul 22, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 20?$26.16Jul 21, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 20?$40.20Jul 21, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 20?$3.03Jul 21, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$1.74Jul 21, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$15.29Jul 21, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 20?$20.00Jul 21, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$2.46Jul 21, 12:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $50.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 21:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 11:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.