Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.03
Liquidity
$377.00
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2147h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 58.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2146.9h
- 13:06SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2147h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to thisAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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