Incredible-Phosphate-Doe
0x5a4d2c51d9fd59ce57e38c23e0b5569292ef0b8f
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$7.10
Total PnL
$-267.85
Realised
$-10.92
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.50
$0.15
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?
5 shares @ 10.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.60
$2.10
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
35 shares @ 32.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-11.40
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
35 shares @ 56.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-19.70
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15?
30 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-24.60
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15?
30 shares @ 93.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-28.07
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
28 shares @ 47.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-13.14
- YES
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?
24 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-18.74
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10?
20 shares @ 58.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.65
- YES
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?
20 shares @ 90.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-18.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?$20.00Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of June?$10.00Jun 30, 20:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of June?$5.00Jun 30, 20:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of June?$5.00Jun 30, 20:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$15.00Jun 27, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22?$5.00Jun 22, 16:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22?$5.00Jun 22, 16:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) close at $430-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19?$0.71Jun 21, 15:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20?$5.00Jun 20, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $400?$6.00Jun 18, 20:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?$5.00Jun 18, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?$5.00Jun 18, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18?$5.00Jun 18, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18?$5.00Jun 18, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $128?$3.85Jun 17, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?$4.87Jun 17, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18?$0.90Jun 17, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18?$3.38Jun 17, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18?$4.41Jun 17, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $130?$1.65Jun 17, 23:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $3.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 14:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.