Worn-Kazoo
0x5afc232925d007050a743153197bf0d694eb2995
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$29.42
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-21.53
Win rate
25%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DARDERI
Set 1 Winner: Svrcina vs Darderi
14 shares @ 20.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$6.97
$4.18
- YES
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?
16 shares @ 25.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.72
$2.62
- YES
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?
13 shares @ 32.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.65
$-0.45
- YES
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?
23 shares @ 17.9¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$3.39
$-0.80
- YES
Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?
15 shares @ 14.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.63
$0.52
- YES
Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?
14 shares @ 10.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.24
$0.88
- NO
Will Craig Greenberg win the 2026 Louisville mayoral election?
20 shares @ 28.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.70
$-3.90
- YES
Will Waymo operate in 32 or more cities on December 31 2026?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.62
$-0.40
- NO
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
42 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.29
$-0.76
- YES
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?
61 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.15
$-4.69
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 30?$1.17Jul 30, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 1?$2.31Jul 30, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet 1 Winner: Svrcina vs Darderi$2.90Jul 30, 05:15 UTC
- REDEEMGames Total: O/U 2.5$9.75Jul 30, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Philip Sarnecki win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by less than 5%?$1.66Jul 30, 01:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?$1.45Jul 29, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: MIBR vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner$2.42Jul 29, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: DIA Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix - Game 2 Winner$1.62Jul 29, 19:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?$3.63Jul 29, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYMap Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)$1.28Jul 29, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29?$2.94Jul 29, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$1.28Jul 29, 14:59 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner$2.16Jul 29, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on July 29?$1.94Jul 29, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner$6.00Jul 29, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner$1.64Jul 29, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYGames Total: O/U 2.5$9.60Jul 29, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner$2.21Jul 29, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner$3.31Jul 29, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner$2.93Jul 29, 06:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 08:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.