Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$950.44
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6690.8h
- 05:14SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6691h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 51¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 51¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 59¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 59¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 57¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 59¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 59¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 59¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 57¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 59¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 57¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 48¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
11- 8¢-0.3pp
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 8¢+0.1pp
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 11¢0.0pp
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 8¢-1.2pp
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 10¢-1.4pp
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
Macro · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $5.5M
- 100¢+0.2pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $3.9M
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $2.9M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $2.6M
- 98¢+3.6pp
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $965.2K
- 0¢-0.7pp
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $819.2K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 29, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).