Wallet digest

active

Activity score

81/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$18.0K

Total PnL

$-2.4K

Realised

$-1.1K

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
12859 shares @ 96.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$12.8K
$375.51
YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
5251 shares @ 93.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$5.2K
$348.75
NO
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?
1837 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.8K
ARYNA SABALENKA
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider
274 shares @ 89.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-243.90

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$1.61Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$4.4KJul 25, 06:09 UTC
TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$4.0KJul 25, 06:02 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.0KJul 20, 15:05 UTC
TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$5.0KJul 20, 15:03 UTC
TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$3.0KJul 20, 15:00 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$3.1KJul 19, 22:40 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?$15.2KJul 19, 22:30 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$3.0KJul 19, 07:47 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?$15.0KJul 19, 07:44 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: France 3 - 3 England?$10.2KJul 18, 23:15 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: France 3 - 3 England?$10.0KJul 16, 06:28 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?$12.1KJul 15, 21:21 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$3.2KJul 15, 21:18 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$3.0KJul 15, 08:10 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?$12.0KJul 15, 08:08 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.03Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: Any Other Score?$7.5KJul 14, 21:16 UTC
REDEEMExact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?$10.1KJul 14, 21:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$42.0K

Trades

Buy share

100%

Window

Jul 6, 10:20 UTC → Jul 14, 14:44 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $8.0K

BUYExact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?$8.0K@99¢Jul 6, 10:13 UTC

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$8.0K

1 trades

Buy share

100%

Sample

limited

5 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?

$10.0K · 24% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?24% of recorded volume$10.0K Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Morocco?24% of recorded volume$10.0K Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?19% of recorded volume$8.0K

Profile dimensions

Activity57 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk88 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 25
Avg trade size: $6.6K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 08:35 UTC
Last active: Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 19:24:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data