Few-Tshirt
0x5c121e552296a59ef3e6772eebe1d97c503f3d74
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$136.96
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$-112.22
Win rate
37%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 86.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$43.08
$18.07
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
40 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$37.80
$1.40
- YES
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
160 shares @ 10.4¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.00
$7.40
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
105 shares @ 35.0¢·now 19.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.74
$-16.01
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 13.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.92
$-18.07
- YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
50 shares @ 44.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$4.26
$-17.78
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
23 shares @ 36.1¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.17
$-7.96
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?
768 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
481 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.83
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$39.90Jul 22, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.00Jul 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.00Jul 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.00Jul 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.00Jul 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.00Jul 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.00Jul 22, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.00Jul 22, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?$1.00Jul 22, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLExtended FDV above $3B one day after launch?$53.79Jul 22, 02:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$66.72Jul 20, 01:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLExtended FDV above $3B one day after launch?$4.95Jul 17, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYExtended FDV above $3B one day after launch?$3.16Jul 17, 09:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $18.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 20:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.